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dc.contributor.author
Spinoni, Jonathan
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Barbosa, Paulo
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Bucchignani, Edoardo
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Cassano, John
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Cavazos, Tereza
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Christensen, Jens H.
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Christensen, Ole B.
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Coppola, Erika
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Evans, Jason
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Geyer, Beate
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Giorgi, Filippo
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Hadjinicolaou, Panos
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Jacob, Daniela
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Katzfey, Jack
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Koenigk, Torben
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Laprise, René
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Lennard, Christopher J.
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Kurnaz, M. Levent
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Delei, L.I.
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Llopart, Marta
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McCormick, Niall
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Naumann, Gustavo
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Nikulin, Grigory
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Ozturk, Tugba
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Panitz, Hans Juergen
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da Rocha, Rosmeri Porfirio
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Rockel, Burkhardt
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Solman, Silvina Alicia
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Syktus, Jozef
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Tangang, Fredolin
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Vautard, Robert
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Vautard, Robert
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Vogt, Jürgen V.
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Winger, Katja
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Zittis, George
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Dosio, Alessandro
dc.date.available
2021-10-19T16:15:30Z
dc.date.issued
2020-05
dc.identifier.citation
Spinoni, Jonathan; Barbosa, Paulo; Bucchignani, Edoardo; Cassano, John; Cavazos, Tereza; et al.; Future global meteorological drought hot spots: A study based on CORDEX data; Amer Meteorological Soc; Journal Of Climate; 33; 9; 5-2020; 3635-3661
dc.identifier.issn
0894-8755
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/144302
dc.description.abstract
Two questions motivated this study: 1) Will meteorological droughts become more frequent and severe during the twenty-first century? 2) Given the projected global temperature rise, to what extent does the inclusion of temperature (in addition to precipitation) in drought indicators play a role in future meteorological droughts? To answer, we analyzed the changes in drought frequency, severity, and historically undocumented extreme droughts over 1981–2100, using the standardized precipitation index (SPI; including precipitation only) and standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI; indirectly including temperature), and under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). As input data, we employed 103 high-resolution (0.448) simulations from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), based on a combination of 16 global circulation models (GCMs) and 20 regional circulation models (RCMs). This is the first study on global drought projections including RCMs based on such a large ensemble of RCMs. Based on precipitation only,;15% of the global land is likely to experience more frequent and severe droughts during 2071–2100 versus 1981–2010 for both scenarios. This increase is larger (;47% under RCP4.5,;49% under RCP8.5) when precipitation and temperature are used. Both SPI and SPEI project more frequent and severe droughts, especially under RCP8.5, over southern South America, the Mediterranean region, southern Africa, southeastern China, Japan, and southern Australia. A decrease in drought is projected for high latitudes in Northern Hemisphere and Southeast Asia. If temperature is included, drought characteristics are projected to increase over North America, Amazonia, central Europe and Asia, the Horn of Africa, India, and central Australia; if only precipitation is considered, they are found to decrease over those areas.
dc.format
application/pdf
dc.language.iso
eng
dc.publisher
Amer Meteorological Soc
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dc.rights
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.rights.uri
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
dc.subject
REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELS
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DROUGHTS
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GLOBAL
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FUTURE SCENARIOS
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Investigación Climatológica
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Ciencias de la Tierra y relacionadas con el Medio Ambiente
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dc.subject.classification
CIENCIAS NATURALES Y EXACTAS
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dc.title
Future global meteorological drought hot spots: A study based on CORDEX data
dc.type
info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.type
info:ar-repo/semantics/artículo
dc.type
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.date.updated
2021-09-07T18:14:14Z
dc.journal.volume
33
dc.journal.number
9
dc.journal.pagination
3635-3661
dc.journal.pais
Estados Unidos
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dc.journal.ciudad
Boston
dc.description.fil
Fil: Spinoni, Jonathan. Joint Research Centre; Italia
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Fil: Barbosa, Paulo. Joint Research Centre; Italia
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Fil: Bucchignani, Edoardo. Centro Euro Mediterraneo Sui Cambiamenti Climatici.; Italia
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Fil: Cassano, John. State University of Colorado at Boulder; Estados Unidos
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Fil: Cavazos, Tereza. Centro de Investigacion Cientifica y de Educacion Super; México
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Fil: Christensen, Jens H.. Danish Meteorological Institute; Dinamarca
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Fil: Christensen, Ole B.. Danish Meteorological Institute; Dinamarca
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Fil: Coppola, Erika. The Abdus Salam. International Centre for Theoretical Physics; Italia
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Fil: Evans, Jason. University of New South Wales. Faculty of Science; Australia
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Fil: Geyer, Beate. Institute of Coastal Research; Alemania
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Fil: Giorgi, Filippo. The Abdus Salam. International Centre for Theoretical Physics; Italia
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Fil: Hadjinicolaou, Panos. Environment And Water Research Center; Chipre
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Fil: Jacob, Daniela. Climate Service Center; Alemania
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Fil: Katzfey, Jack. Commonwealth Scientific And Industrial Research Organis; Australia
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Fil: Koenigk, Torben. Swedish Meteorological And Hydrological; Suecia
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Fil: Laprise, René. Université du Québec a Montreal; Canadá
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Fil: Lennard, Christopher J.. University of Cape Town; Sudáfrica
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Fil: Kurnaz, M. Levent. Bogazici University; Turquía
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Fil: Delei, L.I.. Chinese Academy of Sciences; República de China
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Fil: Llopart, Marta. Universidade Estadual Paulista Julio de Mesquita Filho; Brasil
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Fil: McCormick, Niall. European Commission Joint Research Centre; España
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Fil: Naumann, Gustavo. European Commission Joint Research Centre; España
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Fil: Nikulin, Grigory. No especifíca;
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Fil: Ozturk, Tugba. No especifíca;
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Fil: Panitz, Hans Juergen. No especifíca;
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Fil: da Rocha, Rosmeri Porfirio. No especifíca;
dc.description.fil
Fil: Rockel, Burkhardt. No especifíca;
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Fil: Solman, Silvina Alicia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina
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Fil: Syktus, Jozef. The University of Queensland; Australia. University of Queensland; Australia
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Fil: Tangang, Fredolin. No especifíca;
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Fil: Vautard, Robert. No especifíca;
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Fil: Vautard, Robert. Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique; Francia
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Fil: Vogt, Jürgen V.. European Commission Joint Research Centre; España
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Fil: Winger, Katja. Université du Québec a Montreal; Canadá
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Fil: Zittis, George. No especifíca;
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Fil: Dosio, Alessandro. No especifíca;
dc.journal.title
Journal Of Climate
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dc.relation.alternativeid
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0084.1
dc.relation.alternativeid
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0084.1
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