Beginning of Desertification in the Southern Buenos Aires and the predictability of Soil Water Content

Abstract

The implementation of seasonal forecasts of soil water in relative small spatial scales is of great interest, especially in the agricultural sector as they facilitate decision-making what allows a better management of water resources and maximize efficiency in productivity. In this work, Tres Arroyos meteorological station was chosen for the analysis. Located in the south of Buenos Aires, Tres Arroyos is one of the most important regions for corn production. The aim of this study is to design a statistical model using atmospheric forcing to predict soil water storage (WS) for spring. The analysis of the efficiency of different models takes into account the adjusted squared correlation coefficient ((R^2 ) ̅) and cross-validation coefficient (CV) values. The preliminary results show that the best designed model has an efficiency of around 66%.