Mostrar el registro sencillo del ítem
dc.contributor.author
Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio
dc.contributor.author
García Serrano, Javier
dc.contributor.author
Doblasreyes, Francisco
dc.contributor.author
Díaz, Leandro Baltasar
dc.contributor.author
Vera, Carolina Susana
dc.date.available
2021-10-15T19:12:28Z
dc.date.issued
2020-05
dc.identifier.citation
Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio; García Serrano, Javier; Doblasreyes, Francisco; Díaz, Leandro Baltasar; Vera, Carolina Susana; Decadal predictability and prediction skill of sea surface temperatures in the South Pacific region; Springer; Climate Dynamics; 54; 9-10; 5-2020; 3945-3958
dc.identifier.issn
0930-7575
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/143939
dc.description.abstract
The South Pacific Ocean is a key driver of climate variability within the Southern Hemisphere at different time scales. Previous studies have characterized the main mode of interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variability in that region as a dipolar pattern of SST anomalies that cover subtropical and extratropical latitudes (the South Pacific Ocean Dipole, or SPOD), which is related to precipitation and temperature anomalies over several regions throughout the Southern Hemisphere. Using that relationship and the reported low predictive skill of precipitation anomalies over the Southern Hemisphere, this work explores the predictability and prediction skill of the SPOD in near-term climate hindcasts using a set of state-of-the-art forecast systems. Results show that predictability greatly benefits from initializing the hindcasts beyond the prescribed radiative forcing, and is modulated by known modes of climate variability, namely El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. Furthermore, the models are capable of simulating the spatial pattern of the observed SPOD even without initialization, which suggests that the key dynamical processes are properly represented. However, the hindcast of the actual phase of the mode is only achieved when the forecast systems are initialized, pointing at SPOD variability to not be radiatively forced but probably internally generated. The comparison with the performance of an empirical prediction based on persistence suggests that initialization may provide skillful information for SST anomalies, outperforming damping processes, up to 2–3 years into the future.
dc.format
application/pdf
dc.language.iso
eng
dc.publisher
Springer
dc.rights
info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess
dc.rights
Atribución-NoComercial-CompartirIgual 2.5 Argentina (CC BY-NC-SA 2.5 AR)
dc.rights.uri
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.subject
ENSO
dc.subject
IPO
dc.subject
NEAR-TERM CLIMATE PREDICTIONS
dc.subject
SOUTH PACIFIC
dc.subject
SST
dc.subject.classification
Investigación Climatológica
dc.subject.classification
Ciencias de la Tierra y relacionadas con el Medio Ambiente
dc.subject.classification
CIENCIAS NATURALES Y EXACTAS
dc.title
Decadal predictability and prediction skill of sea surface temperatures in the South Pacific region
dc.type
info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.type
info:ar-repo/semantics/artículo
dc.type
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.date.updated
2021-09-07T18:14:18Z
dc.journal.volume
54
dc.journal.number
9-10
dc.journal.pagination
3945-3958
dc.journal.pais
Alemania
dc.journal.ciudad
Berlin
dc.description.fil
Fil: Saurral, Ramiro Ignacio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina
dc.description.fil
Fil: García Serrano, Javier. Universidad de Barcelona; España
dc.description.fil
Fil: Doblasreyes, Francisco. Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avancats; España
dc.description.fil
Fil: Díaz, Leandro Baltasar. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina
dc.description.fil
Fil: Vera, Carolina Susana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina
dc.journal.title
Climate Dynamics
dc.relation.alternativeid
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-020-05208-3
dc.relation.alternativeid
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05208-3
Archivos asociados