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dc.contributor.author
Necker, Tobias
dc.contributor.author
Geiss, Stefan
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Weissmann, Martin
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Ruiz, Juan Jose
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Miyoshi, Takemasa
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Lien, Guo Yuan
dc.date.available
2021-10-15T17:40:23Z
dc.date.issued
2020-04
dc.identifier.citation
Necker, Tobias; Geiss, Stefan; Weissmann, Martin; Ruiz, Juan Jose; Miyoshi, Takemasa; et al.; A convective-scale 1,000-member ensemble simulation and potential applications; John Wiley & Sons Ltd; Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society; 146; 728; 4-2020; 1423-1442
dc.identifier.issn
0035-9009
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/143882
dc.description.abstract
This study presents the first convective-scale 1,000-member ensemble simulation over central Europe, which provides a unique data set for various applications. A comparison with the operational regional 40-member ensemble of Deutscher Wetterdienst shows that the 1,000-member simulation exhibits realistic spread properties overall. Based on this, we discuss two potential applications. First, we quantify the sampling error of spatial covariances of smaller subsets compared with the 1,000-member simulation. Knowledge about sampling errors and their dependence on ensemble size is crucial for ensemble and hybrid data assimilation and for developing better approaches for localization in this context. Secondly, we present an approach for estimating the relative potential impact of different observable quantities using ensemble sensitivity analysis. This will provide the basis for consecutive studies developing future observation and data assimilation strategies. Sensitivity studies on the ensemble size indicate that about 200 ensemble members are required to estimate the potential impact of observable quantities with respect to precipitation forecasts.
dc.format
application/pdf
dc.language.iso
eng
dc.publisher
John Wiley & Sons Ltd
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dc.rights
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.rights.uri
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.subject
CONVECTIVE-SCALE
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COVARIANCE
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DATA ASSIMILATION
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ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
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LOCALIZATION
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OBSERVING SYSTEM
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SAMPLING ERROR
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Meteorología y Ciencias Atmosféricas
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dc.subject.classification
Ciencias de la Tierra y relacionadas con el Medio Ambiente
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dc.subject.classification
CIENCIAS NATURALES Y EXACTAS
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dc.title
A convective-scale 1,000-member ensemble simulation and potential applications
dc.type
info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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info:ar-repo/semantics/artículo
dc.type
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.date.updated
2021-09-07T18:14:22Z
dc.journal.volume
146
dc.journal.number
728
dc.journal.pagination
1423-1442
dc.journal.pais
Reino Unido
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dc.conicet.avisoEditorial
This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Necker, T, Geiss, S, Weissmann, M, Ruiz, J, Miyoshi, T, Lien, G-Y. A convective-scale 1,000-member ensemble simulation and potential applications. Q J R Meteorol Soc. 2020; 146: 1423– 1442. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3744, which has been published in final form at https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3744. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Use of Self-Archived Versions. This article may not be enhanced, enriched or otherwise transformed into a derivative work, without express permission from Wiley or by statutory rights under applicable legislation. Copyright notices must not be removed, obscured or modified. The article must be linked to Wiley’s version of record on Wiley Online Library and any embedding, framing or otherwise making available the article or pages thereof by third parties from platforms, services and websites other than Wiley Online Library must be prohibited.
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Fil: Necker, Tobias. Ludwig Maximilians Universitat; Alemania. Universidad de Viena; Austria
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Fil: Geiss, Stefan. Ludwig Maximilians Universitat; Alemania
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Fil: Weissmann, Martin. Ludwig Maximilians Universitat; Alemania
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Fil: Ruiz, Juan Jose. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina
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Fil: Miyoshi, Takemasa. RIKEN Center for Computational Science; Japón
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Fil: Lien, Guo Yuan. RIKEN Center for Computational Science; Japón
dc.journal.title
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
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dc.relation.alternativeid
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/qj.3744
dc.relation.alternativeid
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.3744
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