Impacts of climate change on viticulture in Argentina

Abstract

Climate change is expected to impact considerably on viticultural zoning. In this work, impacts of future climate on Argentinean winegrowing regions are assessed using climatic projections from the IPSL-CM5A-MR model for the near (2015–2039) and the far (2075–2099) future under two emission scenarios (RCP4.5, RCP8.5). Four bioclimatic indices were assessed for exploring possible geographical shifts and suitability changes of Argentinean winegrowing regions. These geographical and suitability changes, assessed in terms of changes in vineyards location, varieties selection, and quality and quantity of grapevines, were considered as challenges and/or opportunities depending on the winegrowing region, the temporal horizon and the emission scenario. Results show a significant southwestward and higher altitude displacement of winegrowing regions, mainly for 2075–2099 under RCP8.5 scenario. Accordingly, the Argentinean viticulture may face both opportunities and/or challenges due to projected warmer climate conditions. Winegrowing regions of cold climates could be favoured, while winegrowing regions of warm climates could be disadvantaged, mainly for 2075–2099 under RCP8.5. Therefore, warmer climate conditions might be beneficial for maintaining the current grapevine varieties with their current grape quality or for cultivating new grapevine varieties in the new projected winegrowing areas; or they might be harmful for maintaining the current grapevine varieties with their yields and quality over most of current grapevine growing areas, but especially in the projected warmest ones. Summarizing, the results allow for understanding how temperature and precipitation changes could affect the future geographical distribution of Argentinean winegrowing areas and their suitability characteristics, useful information for planning adaptation in the coming decades.