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dc.contributor.author
Puliafito, Salvador Enrique
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dc.contributor.author
Puliafito, José Luis
dc.contributor.author
Conte Grand, Mariana
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dc.date.available
2021-05-10T12:04:23Z
dc.date.issued
2008-04-15
dc.identifier.citation
Puliafito, Salvador Enrique; Puliafito, José Luis; Conte Grand, Mariana; Modeling population dynamics and economic growth as competing species: An application to CO2 global emissions; Elsevier Science; Ecological Economics; 65; 3; 15-4-2008; 602-615
dc.identifier.issn
0921-8009
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/131739
dc.description.abstract
Since the beginning of the last century the world is experiencing an important demographic transition, which will probably impact on economic growth. Many demographers and social scientists are trying to understand the key drivers of such transition as well as its profound implications. A correct understanding will help to predict other important trends of the world primary energy demand and the carbon emission to the atmosphere, which may be leading to an important climate change. This paper proposes a set of coupled differential equations to describe the changes of population, gross domestic product, primary energy consumption and carbon emissions, modeled as competing species as in Lotka-Volterra prey-predator relations. The predator-prey model is well known in the biological, ecological and environmental literature and has also been applied successfully in other fields. This model proposes a new and simple conceptual explanation of the interactions and feedbacks among the principal driving forces leading to the present transition. The estimated results for the temporal evolution of world population, gross domestic product, primary energy consumption and carbon emissions are calculated from year 1850 to year 2150. The calculated scenarios are in good agreement with common world data and projections for the next 100 years.
dc.format
application/pdf
dc.language.iso
eng
dc.publisher
Elsevier Science
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dc.rights
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.rights.uri
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.subject
CARBON EMISSION MODEL
dc.subject
ECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subject
LOTKA-VOLTERRA EQUATIONS
dc.subject
POPULATION DYNAMICS
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PREY-PREDATOR MODEL
dc.subject
PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION
dc.subject.classification
Investigación Climatológica
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dc.subject.classification
Ciencias de la Tierra y relacionadas con el Medio Ambiente
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dc.subject.classification
CIENCIAS NATURALES Y EXACTAS
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dc.title
Modeling population dynamics and economic growth as competing species: An application to CO2 global emissions
dc.type
info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.type
info:ar-repo/semantics/artículo
dc.type
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.date.updated
2020-08-04T19:42:34Z
dc.journal.volume
65
dc.journal.number
3
dc.journal.pagination
602-615
dc.journal.pais
Países Bajos
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dc.journal.ciudad
Amsterdam
dc.description.fil
Fil: Puliafito, Salvador Enrique. Universidad Tecnológica Nacional; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza; Argentina
dc.description.fil
Fil: Puliafito, José Luis. Universidad de Mendoza; Argentina
dc.description.fil
Fil: Conte Grand, Mariana. Universidad del Cema. Departamento de Economía; Argentina
dc.journal.title
Ecological Economics
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dc.relation.alternativeid
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2007.08.010
dc.relation.alternativeid
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0921800907004375
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