Impact reduction of COVID19 in AMBA Part 2: lockdown control

Abstract

This work presents the second part of a study focused on the multilevel control of the population confinement for the AMBA region to mitigate the COVID-19 outbreak. With this aim, the model used throughout this study is known as SEIRD and two objectives are sought. Firstly, a time-varying identification of the infection rate and its relation with the measured average mobility in the AMBA is developed. Secondly, a control law is added to regulate the transitions between confinement and normal life, according to five different levels. This work is presented in two parts: Part 1 covers the model identification and validation, and the analysis of the impact on the model of the measured average mobility; while this paper (Part 2) details the proposed control methodology, which considers the plasma treatment from recovered patients. Here, the impact of the proposed model-based control methodology on the reduction of the ICU occupancy and the number of deaths, is detailed.