Impact reduction of COVID19 in AMBA Part 1: Model identification & validation

Abstract

This work presents the first part of a study focused on the multilevel control of the population confinement for the AMBA region to mitigate the COVID-19 outbreak. With this aim, the models used throughout this study are known as SEIR/SEIRD and two objectives are sought. Firstly, a timevarying identification of the infection rate and its relation with the measured average mobility in the AMBA is developed. Secondly, a control law is added to regulate the transitions between confinement and normal life, according to five different levels. This work is presented in two parts: this paper (Part 1) covers the model identification and validation, and the analysis of the impact on the model of the measured average mobility; while Part 2 details the proposed control methodology, which also considers the plasma treatment from recovered patients. The latter focuses on the impact of the proposed model-based control methodology on the reduction of the ICU occupancy and number of deaths