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dc.contributor.author
Laneri, Karina Fabiana  
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Paul, Richard E.  
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Tall, Adama  
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Faye, Joseph  
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Diene Sarr, Fatoumata  
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Sokhna, Cheikh  
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Trape, Jean François  
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Rodó, Xavier  
dc.date.available
2021-03-02T13:21:49Z  
dc.date.issued
2015-06  
dc.identifier.citation
Laneri, Karina Fabiana; Paul, Richard E.; Tall, Adama; Faye, Joseph; Diene Sarr, Fatoumata; et al.; Dynamical malaria models reveal how immunity buffers effect of climate variability; National Academy of Sciences; Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of The United States of America; 112; 28; 6-2015; 8786-8791  
dc.identifier.issn
0027-8424  
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/127102  
dc.description.abstract
Assessing the influence of climate on the incidence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria worldwide and how it might impact local malaria dynamics is complex and extrapolation to other settings or future times is controversial. This is especially true in the light of the particularities of the short- and long-term immune responses to infection. In sites of epidemic malaria transmission, it is widely accepted that climate plays an important role in driving malaria outbreaks. However, little is known about the role of climate in endemic settings where clinical immunity develops early in life. To disentangle these differences among high- and low-transmission settings we applied a dynamical model to two unique adjacent cohorts of mesoendemic seasonal and holoendemic perennial malaria transmission in Senegal followed for two decades, recording daily P. falciparum cases. As both cohorts are subject to similar meteorological conditions, we were able to analyze the relevance of different immunological mechanisms compared with climatic forcing in malaria transmission. Transmission was first modeled by using similarly unique datasets of entomological inoculation rate. A stochastic nonlinear human-mosquito model that includes rainfall and temperature covariates, drug treatment periods, and population variability is capable of simulating the complete dynamics of reported malaria cases for both villages. We found that under moderate transmission intensity climate is crucial; however, under high endemicity the development of clinical immunity buffers any effect of climate. Our models open the possibility of forecasting malaria from climate in endemic regions but only after accounting for the interaction between climate and immunity.  
dc.format
application/pdf  
dc.language.iso
eng  
dc.publisher
National Academy of Sciences  
dc.rights
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess  
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https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/  
dc.subject
CLIMATE  
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ENDEMICITY  
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IMMUNITY  
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PLASMODIUM FALCIPARUM MALARIA  
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VECTOR-BORNE DISEASES  
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Otras Ciencias Físicas  
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Ciencias Físicas  
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CIENCIAS NATURALES Y EXACTAS  
dc.title
Dynamical malaria models reveal how immunity buffers effect of climate variability  
dc.type
info:eu-repo/semantics/article  
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info:ar-repo/semantics/artículo  
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info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion  
dc.date.updated
2021-02-26T19:18:00Z  
dc.journal.volume
112  
dc.journal.number
28  
dc.journal.pagination
8786-8791  
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Estados Unidos  
dc.journal.ciudad
Washington  
dc.description.fil
Fil: Laneri, Karina Fabiana. Institut Catala de Ciencies del Clima; España. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del Área de Investigaciones y Aplicaciones No Nucleares. Gerencia de Física (cab). División Física Estadística; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte; Argentina  
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Fil: Paul, Richard E.. Institut Pasteur de Paris.; Francia. Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique; Francia  
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Fil: Tall, Adama. Institut Pasteur de Dakar; Senegal  
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Fil: Faye, Joseph. Institut Pasteur de Dakar; Senegal  
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Fil: Diene Sarr, Fatoumata. Institut Pasteur de Dakar; Senegal  
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Fil: Sokhna, Cheikh. Institut de Recherche Pour Le Developement; Senegal  
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Fil: Trape, Jean François. Institut de Recherche Pour Le Developement; Senegal  
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Fil: Rodó, Xavier. Institut Catala de Ciencies del Clima; España. Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avancats; España  
dc.journal.title
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of The United States of America  
dc.relation.alternativeid
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/http://dx.doi.org/ 10.1073/pnas.1419047112  
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info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.pnas.org/content/112/28/8786