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Artículo

Observed and Simulated Changes in Precipitation Seasonality in Argentina

Doyle, Moira EvelinaIcon
Fecha de publicación: 08/2019
Editorial: John Wiley & Sons Ltd
Revista: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 0899-8418
Idioma: Inglés
Tipo de recurso: Artículo publicado
Clasificación temática:
Investigación Climatológica

Resumen

Seasonality in Argentina is examined using precipitation observations from 56 weather stations north of 42°S and CRU gridded precipitation. The Walsh and Lawler Seasonality Index (SI) and Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI) are calculated to determine the different seasonality regimes. The main characteristic is an eastwest gradient, where precipitation tends to be more evenly distributed throughout the different months of the year in the east while rainfall in the west is concentrated in 3 months or less. High replicability values indicate that the wettest month generally occurs during a same period of months in central and northern Argentina. Several stations in eastern humid Argentina have significant positive changes in the mean of seasonality indices between 1961 and 1985 and 1986 and 2010, and increasing trend. In most cases this leads to a change in the regime from rather seasonal with a short dry season to a seasonal regime. Through a PAM Clustering technique a new regionalization of precipitation seasonality is obtained. The mean series in each cluster show a tendency towards more seasonal and highly seasonal regimes in all regions. The SI and PCI indices were calculated using the precipitation outputs of 18 global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to examine the ability of these models to represent seasonality spatial distribution and changes in Argentina. To some extent the spatial distribution of seasonality is captured by models; however, there are considerable discrepancies in the location and extension of the eastwest gradient. The sign and location of trends and changes in the mean SI and PCI are adequately reproduced in only a few models. The low ability of GCMs to represent seasonality and its changes is a consequence of the difficulties GCMs have simulating precipitation characteristics in Argentina reported by different authors.
Palabras clave: ARGENTINA , CMIP5 , PRECIPITATION CONCENTRATION , PRECIPITATION SEASONALITY , TRENDS
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info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess Excepto donde se diga explícitamente, este item se publica bajo la siguiente descripción: Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 2.5 Unported (CC BY-NC-SA 2.5)
Identificadores
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/11336/121019
URL: https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/joc.6297
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.6297
Colecciones
Articulos(CIMA)
Articulos de CENTRO DE INVESTIGACIONES DEL MAR Y LA ATMOSFERA
Citación
Doyle, Moira Evelina; Observed and Simulated Changes in Precipitation Seasonality in Argentina; John Wiley & Sons Ltd; International Journal of Climatology; 40; 3; 8-2019; 1716-1737
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