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dc.contributor.author
Zampieri, M.
dc.contributor.author
Ceglar, A.
dc.contributor.author
Dentener, F.
dc.contributor.author
Dosio, A.
dc.contributor.author
Naumann, Gustavo
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dc.contributor.author
van den Berg, M.
dc.contributor.author
Toreti, A.
dc.date.available
2020-09-04T18:12:29Z
dc.date.issued
2019-02
dc.identifier.citation
Zampieri, M.; Ceglar, A.; Dentener, F.; Dosio, A.; Naumann, Gustavo; et al.; When Will Current Climate Extremes Affecting Maize Production Become the Norm?; American Geophysical Union; Earth's Future; 7; 2; 2-2019; 113-122
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/113276
dc.description.abstract
We estimate the effects of climate anomalies (heat stress and drought) on annual maize production, variability, and trend from the country level to the global scale using a statistical model. Moderate climate anomalies and extremes are diagnosed with two indicators of heat stress and drought computed over maize growing regions during the most relevant period of maize growth. The calibrated model linearly combines these two indicators into a single Combined Stress Index. The Combined Stress Index explains 50% of the observed global production variability in the period 1980?2010. We apply the model on an ensemble of high-resolution global climate model simulations. Global maize losses, due to extreme climate events with 10-year return times during the period 1980?2010, will become the new normal already at 1.5 °C global warming levels (approximately 2020s). At 2 °C warming (late 2030s), maize areas will be affected by heat stress and drought never experienced before, affecting many major and minor production regions.
dc.format
application/pdf
dc.language.iso
eng
dc.publisher
American Geophysical Union
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dc.rights
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.rights.uri
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.subject
CLIMATE CHANGE
dc.subject
CLIMATE EXTREMES
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DROUGHT
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HEAT WAVES
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MAIZE PRODUCTION
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PARIS AGREEMENT
dc.subject.classification
Investigación Climatológica
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dc.subject.classification
Ciencias de la Tierra y relacionadas con el Medio Ambiente
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dc.subject.classification
CIENCIAS NATURALES Y EXACTAS
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dc.title
When Will Current Climate Extremes Affecting Maize Production Become the Norm?
dc.type
info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.type
info:ar-repo/semantics/artículo
dc.type
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.date.updated
2020-07-08T18:56:52Z
dc.identifier.eissn
2328-4277
dc.journal.volume
7
dc.journal.number
2
dc.journal.pagination
113-122
dc.journal.pais
Estados Unidos
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dc.description.fil
Fil: Zampieri, M.. European Commission Joint Research Centre; Italia
dc.description.fil
Fil: Ceglar, A.. European Commission Joint Research Centre; Italia
dc.description.fil
Fil: Dentener, F.. European Commission Joint Research Centre; Italia
dc.description.fil
Fil: Dosio, A.. European Commission Joint Research Centre; Italia
dc.description.fil
Fil: Naumann, Gustavo. European Commission Joint Research Centre; Italia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria; Argentina
dc.description.fil
Fil: van den Berg, M.. European Commission Joint Research Centre; Italia
dc.description.fil
Fil: Toreti, A.. European Commission Joint Research Centre; Italia
dc.journal.title
Earth's Future
dc.relation.alternativeid
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2018EF000995
dc.relation.alternativeid
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018EF000995
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