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dc.contributor.author
Letson, David
dc.contributor.author
Laciana, Carlos Ernesto
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dc.contributor.author
Bert, Federico Esteban
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dc.contributor.author
Weber, Elke U.
dc.contributor.author
Katz, Richard W.
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González, Xavier Ignacio
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dc.contributor.author
Podestá, Guillermo P.
dc.date.available
2020-08-25T21:39:37Z
dc.date.issued
2009-10
dc.identifier.citation
Letson, David; Laciana, Carlos Ernesto; Bert, Federico Esteban; Weber, Elke U.; Katz, Richard W.; et al.; Value of perfect ENSO phase predictions for agriculture: Evaluating the impact of land tenure and decision objectives; Springer; Climatic Change; 97; 1; 10-2009; 145-170
dc.identifier.issn
0165-0009
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/112418
dc.description.abstract
In many places, predictions of regional climate variability associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon offer the potential to improve farmers' decision outcomes, by mitigating the negative impacts of adverse conditions or by taking advantage of favorable conditions. While the notion that climate forecasts are potentially valuable has been established, questions of when they may be more or less valuable have proven harder to resolve. Using simulations, we estimate the expected value of seasonal climate information under alternative assumptions about (a) land tenure (ownership vs. short-term leases) and (b) the decision maker's objective function (expected utility vs. prospect theory value function maximization), employing a full range of plausible parameter values for each objective function. This allows us to show the extent to which the value of information depends on risk preferences, loss aversion, wealth levels and expectations, as well as situational constraints. Our results demonstrate in a non-laboratory decision context that, in some cases, psychologically plausible deviations from expected utility maximization can lead to substantial differences in estimates of the expected value of climate forecasts. Efforts to foster effective use of climate information and forecasts in agriculture must be grounded in a firm understanding of the goals, objectives and constraints of decision makers.
dc.format
application/pdf
dc.language.iso
eng
dc.publisher
Springer
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dc.rights
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.rights.uri
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.subject
ENSO PHASE
dc.subject.classification
Meteorología y Ciencias Atmosféricas
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dc.subject.classification
Ciencias de la Tierra y relacionadas con el Medio Ambiente
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dc.subject.classification
CIENCIAS NATURALES Y EXACTAS
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dc.title
Value of perfect ENSO phase predictions for agriculture: Evaluating the impact of land tenure and decision objectives
dc.type
info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.type
info:ar-repo/semantics/artículo
dc.type
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.date.updated
2020-07-01T17:31:37Z
dc.journal.volume
97
dc.journal.number
1
dc.journal.pagination
145-170
dc.journal.pais
Alemania
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dc.journal.ciudad
Berlín
dc.description.fil
Fil: Letson, David. University of Miami; Estados Unidos
dc.description.fil
Fil: Laciana, Carlos Ernesto. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ingeniería; Argentina
dc.description.fil
Fil: Bert, Federico Esteban. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Agronomía; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario; Argentina
dc.description.fil
Fil: Weber, Elke U.. Columbia University; Estados Unidos
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Fil: Katz, Richard W.. National Center for Atmospheric Research; Estados Unidos
dc.description.fil
Fil: González, Xavier Ignacio. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ingeniería; Argentina
dc.description.fil
Fil: Podestá, Guillermo P.. University of Miami; Estados Unidos
dc.journal.title
Climatic Change
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dc.relation.alternativeid
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-009-9600-8
dc.relation.alternativeid
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9600-8
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