Modelling impacts of drivers on biodiversity and ecosystems

Abstract

Modelling is one way of helping policymakers assess the impacts of different drivers on biodiversity and ecosystems, as well as the feedbacks on drivers generated by those impacts (from Chapter 3). Modelling provides tools that canhelp project future dynamics based on scenarios of direct and indirect drivers. However, the capacity of biodiversity modelling to meet policymaking needs is still affected by a lack of data and knowledge, and by model complexity anduncertainties. Both understanding and adequate representation depend on data availability, so there is a need to generate and compile representative data for different biodiversity variables in different ecosystems at multiplelocations and different scales. Observation networks, as well as long-term monitoring programmes, are therefore critical to assess the response of ecosystems to drivers of change such as climate change, land-use change, exploitation and pollution, and to inform model development.