Mediated modeling for integrating science and stakeholders: Impacts of enhanced ultraviolet-B radiation on ecosystem services

Abstract

Mathematical modeling has historically been the province of experts (van den Belt 2004). When applied to policy questions, which span several disciplines and involve nontechnical stakeholders, the expert modeling approach is severely limited. Models for policy purposes usually become quite complex, and it is difficult to communicate results (or the underlying logic of the models) to decision makers in ways that are “credible” (Costanza and Ruth 1998). Models derive their credibility from two distinct sources: 1) the technical ability of the model to reproduce measured observations, and 2) the degree of “buy-in” to the assumptions of the model by stakeholders involved. Within a scientific discipline, the second source is often taken for granted. But in policy-relevant modeling, it often requires special attention. To achieve the necessary buy-in among the diverse stakeholders affected by a policy problem requires that the stakeholders participate in the modeling process. This chapter focuses on this participatory approach to model building in the context of the impacts of enhanced ultraviolet- B radiation (UVBR) on ecosystem services (Table 20.1). Enhanced UVBR is known from small-scale experiments to have several effects on organisms and ecosystems (Smith et al. 1992). But how those effects scale up and affect ecosystem services is not known. This chapter reports on both a mediated model-building process and the resulting model built jointly by scientists and stakeholders.