A dark scenario for Cerrado plant species: effects of future climate, land-use, and protected areas ineffectiveness

Abstract

Aim: The anthropogenic climate change and land-use change are considered two of the main factors that are altering biodiversity at the global scale. An evaluation that combined both factors can be relevant to detect which species could be the most vulnerable and reveal the regions of highest stability or susceptibility to biodiversity.We aimed to (i) assess the effect of the climate change and land-use on the distribution of the Cerrado plant species for different countries where it occurs, (ii) evaluate the efficiency of the current protected areas (PAs) network to safeguards species under different greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and land-use and (iii) estimate the vulnerability of species caused by protection efficiency and habitat loss.Location: Bolivia, Brazil, and ParaguayMethods: We modeled the distribution of 1,553 plant species of Cerrado and evaluated species range loss caused by present and future land-use and two GHG for 2050 and 2080. We assessed the species vulnerability combining the representativeness of a species´ distribution within conservation units and the loss of species range outside PAs.Results: We found that climate change and land-use will cause great damage to Cerrado flora by 2050 and 2080, even under optimistic conditions. Unfortunately, the greatest intensity and extent of land-use will have to overcome on the regions where the greatest richness will be harbored. The conservation of the species will be seriously affected since the PAs network is not as efficient in safeguarding them under current or future conditions. Main conclusions: The low level of protection together with the losses caused by the advance of the agricultural frontier will lead to most species being highly vulnerable. Due to the climate and land-use, effects showed different interactions in each country, conservation strategies should be implemented at transboundary and national levels.