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dc.contributor.author
Grau, Hector Ricardo
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dc.contributor.author
Aide, T. Michael
dc.contributor.author
Zimmerman, Jess K.
dc.contributor.author
Thomlinson, John R.
dc.date.available
2020-04-01T13:54:52Z
dc.date.issued
2004-12
dc.identifier.citation
Grau, Hector Ricardo; Aide, T. Michael; Zimmerman, Jess K.; Thomlinson, John R.; Trends and scenarios of the carbon budget in postagricultural Puerto Rico (1936-2060); Wiley Blackwell Publishing, Inc; Global Change Biology; 10; 7; 12-2004; 1163-1179
dc.identifier.issn
1354-1013
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/101454
dc.description.abstract
Contrary to the general trend in the tropics, Puerto Rico underwent a process of agriculture abandonment during the second half of the 20th century as a consequence of socioeconomic changes toward urbanization and industrialization. Using data on land-use change, biomass accumulation in secondary forests, and ratios between gross domestic product and carbon emissions, we developed a model of the carbon budget for Puerto Rico between 1936 and 2060. As a consequence of land abandonment, forests have expanded rapidly since 1950, achieving the highest sequestration rates between 1980 and 1990. Regardless of future scenarios of demography and land use, sequestration rates will decrease in the future because biomass accumulation decreases with forest age and there is little agricultural land remaining to be abandoned. Due to high per-capita consumption and population density, carbon emissions of Puerto Rico have increased dramatically and exceeded carbon sequestration during the second half of the 20th century. Although Puerto Rico had the highest percent of reforestation for a tropical country, emissions during the period 1950-2000 were approximately 3.5 times higher than sequestration, and current annual emission is almost 9 times the rate of sequestration. Additionally, while sequestration will decrease over the next six decades, current socioeconomic trends suggest increasing emissions unless there are significant changes in energy technology or consumption patterns. In conclusion, socioeconomic changes leading to urbanization and industrialization in tropical countries may promote high rates of carbon sequestration during the decades following land abandonment. Initial high rates of carbon sequestration can balance emissions of developing countries with low emission/GDP ratio. In Puerto Rico, the socioeconomic changes that promoted reforestation also promoted high energy consumption, and resulted in a net increase in carbon emissions
dc.format
application/pdf
dc.language.iso
eng
dc.publisher
Wiley Blackwell Publishing, Inc
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dc.rights
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.rights.uri
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.subject
CARBON BUDGET
dc.subject
GLOBALIZATIO
dc.subject
KYOTO PROTOCOL
dc.subject
LAND-USE CHANGE
dc.subject
PUERTO RICO
dc.subject
SECONDARY SUCCESSION
dc.subject
STELLA
dc.subject.classification
Ecología
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dc.subject.classification
Ciencias Biológicas
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dc.subject.classification
CIENCIAS NATURALES Y EXACTAS
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dc.title
Trends and scenarios of the carbon budget in postagricultural Puerto Rico (1936-2060)
dc.type
info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.type
info:ar-repo/semantics/artículo
dc.type
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.date.updated
2020-03-30T14:34:55Z
dc.journal.volume
10
dc.journal.number
7
dc.journal.pagination
1163-1179
dc.journal.pais
Reino Unido
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dc.journal.ciudad
Birmingham
dc.description.fil
Fil: Grau, Hector Ricardo. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Facultad de Ciencias Naturales e Instituto Miguel Lillo; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Tucumán; Argentina
dc.description.fil
Fil: Aide, T. Michael. Universidad de Puerto Rico; Puerto Rico
dc.description.fil
Fil: Zimmerman, Jess K.. Universidad de Puerto Rico; Puerto Rico
dc.description.fil
Fil: Thomlinson, John R.. Universidad de Puerto Rico; Puerto Rico
dc.journal.title
Global Change Biology
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dc.relation.alternativeid
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1529-8817.2003.00792.x
dc.relation.alternativeid
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1529-8817.2003.00792.x
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