Elasticidades de comercio exterior de la Argentina (2da parte): desagregación por socio comercial

Abstract

En el número 289 de Realidad Económica se publicó la primera parte de esta investigación, en las que se estimaron las elasticidades agregadas del comercio exterior de la Argentina. Los resultados mostraron que la elasticidad ingreso de las importaciones duplica a la de las exportaciones, mientras que las elasticidades precio presentan valores reducidos. De esta forma, Argentina enfrenta un límite a su crecimiento, dado que ? al crecer al mismo ritmo que sus socios comerciales ? se va deteriorando tendencialmente el saldo comercial. El objetivo de esta segunda parte de la investigación es desagregar el cálculo de las elasticidades por socio comercial, para identificar si este patrón se repite o no en todos los casos.

In the first part of this research, which was published in a previous issue of this journal (Realidad económica Nº 289), the aggregated foreign trade elasticities of argentina were estimated. The results showed that the income elasticity of imports were much higher than the income elasticity of exports, and both, the price elasticities of imports and exports, were too low to have a significant effect on the trade flows. Thus, argentina faces an obstacle to achieve a growth rate similar to that of its main trade partners, generating a tendency towards the current account deterioration. The objective of this second part of the research is to disaggregate the estimation of the elasticities by main trade partners, as well as to identify if this pattern happens in all cases.