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dc.contributor.author
Van Beusekom, Ashley E.
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Gould, William A.
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Monmany, Ana Carolina
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Khalyani, Azad Henareh
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Quiñones, Maya
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Fain, Stephen J.
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Andrade Núñez, María José
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González, Grizelle
dc.date.available
2018-12-13T20:57:32Z
dc.date.issued
2018-01
dc.identifier.citation
Van Beusekom, Ashley E.; Gould, William A.; Monmany, Ana Carolina; Khalyani, Azad Henareh; Quiñones, Maya; et al.; Fire weather and likelihood: characterizing climate space for fire occurrence and extent in Puerto Rico; Springer; Climatic Change; 146; 1-2; 1-2018; 117-131
dc.identifier.issn
0165-0009
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/66472
dc.description.abstract
Assessing the relationships between weather patterns and the likelihood of fire occurrence in the Caribbean has not been as central to climate change research as in temperate regions, due in part to the smaller extent of individual fires. However, the cumulative effect of small frequent fires can shape large landscapes, and fire-prone ecosystems are abundant in the tropics. Climate change has the potential to greatly expand fire-prone areas to moist and wet tropical forests and grasslands that have been traditionally less fire-prone, and to extend and create more temporal variability in fire seasons. We built a machine learning random forest classifier to analyze the relationship between climatic, socio-economic, and fire history data with fire occurrence and extent for the years 2003–2011 in Puerto Rico, nearly 35,000 fires. Using classifiers based on climate measurements alone, we found that the climate space is a reliable associate, if not a predictor, of fire occurrence and extent in this environment. We found a strong relationship between occurrence and a change from average weather conditions, and between extent and severity of weather conditions. The probability that the random forest classifiers will rank a positive example higher than a negative example is 0.8–0.89 in the classifiers for deciding if a fire occurs, and 0.64–0.69 in the classifiers for deciding if the fire is greater than 5 ha. Future climate projections of extreme seasons indicate increased potential for fire occurrence with larger extents.
dc.format
application/pdf
dc.language.iso
eng
dc.publisher
Springer
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dc.rights
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.rights.uri
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.subject
Fire Weather
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Fire Drivers
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Machine Learning
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Climate Change
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Neotropics
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Puerto Rico
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Meteorología y Ciencias Atmosféricas
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dc.subject.classification
Ciencias de la Tierra y relacionadas con el Medio Ambiente
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dc.subject.classification
CIENCIAS NATURALES Y EXACTAS
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dc.title
Fire weather and likelihood: characterizing climate space for fire occurrence and extent in Puerto Rico
dc.type
info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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info:ar-repo/semantics/artículo
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info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.date.updated
2018-10-23T20:41:46Z
dc.journal.volume
146
dc.journal.number
1-2
dc.journal.pagination
117-131
dc.journal.pais
Alemania
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dc.journal.ciudad
Berlín
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Fil: Van Beusekom, Ashley E.. United States Department of Agriculture; Estados Unidos
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Fil: Gould, William A.. United States Department of Agriculture; Estados Unidos
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Fil: Monmany, Ana Carolina. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional; Argentina
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Fil: Khalyani, Azad Henareh. State University of Colorado - Fort Collins; Estados Unidos
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Fil: Quiñones, Maya. United States Department of Agriculture; Estados Unidos
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Fil: Fain, Stephen J.. United States Department of Agriculture; Estados Unidos
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Fil: Andrade Núñez, María José. Universidad de Puerto Rico; Puerto Rico
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Fil: González, Grizelle. United States Department of Agriculture; Estados Unidos
dc.journal.title
Climatic Change
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dc.relation.alternativeid
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-017-2045-6
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info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-2045-6
dc.relation.alternativeid
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/55380
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