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dc.contributor.author
Osman, Marisol
dc.contributor.author
Vera, Carolina Susana
dc.date.available
2018-09-07T19:36:27Z
dc.date.issued
2017-10
dc.identifier.citation
Osman, Marisol; Vera, Carolina Susana; Climate predictability and prediction skill on seasonal time scales over South America from CHFP models; Springer; Climate Dynamics; 49; 7-8; 10-2017; 2365-2383
dc.identifier.issn
0930-7575
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/58821
dc.description.abstract
This work presents an assessment of the predictability and skill of climate anomalies over South America. The study was made considering a multi-model ensemble of seasonal forecasts for surface air temperature, precipitation and regional circulation, from coupled global circulation models included in the Climate Historical Forecast Project. Predictability was evaluated through the estimation of the signal-to-total variance ratio while prediction skill was assessed computing anomaly correlation coefficients. Both indicators present over the continent higher values at the tropics than at the extratropics for both, surface air temperature and precipitation. Moreover, predictability and prediction skill for temperature are slightly higher in DJF than in JJA while for precipitation they exhibit similar levels in both seasons. The largest values of predictability and skill for both variables and seasons are found over northwestern South America while modest but still significant values for extratropical precipitation at southeastern South America and the extratropical Andes. The predictability levels in ENSO years of both variables are slightly higher, although with the same spatial distribution, than that obtained considering all years. Nevertheless, predictability at the tropics for both variables and seasons diminishes in both warm and cold ENSO years respect to that in all years. The latter can be attributed to changes in signal rather than in the noise. Predictability and prediction skill for low-level winds and upper-level zonal winds over South America was also assessed. Maximum levels of predictability for low-level winds were found were maximum mean values are observed, i.e. the regions associated with the equatorial trade winds, the midlatitudes westerlies and the South American Low-Level Jet. Predictability maxima for upper-level zonal winds locate where the subtropical jet peaks. Seasonal changes in wind predictability are observed that seem to be related to those associated with the signal, especially at the extratropics.
dc.format
application/pdf
dc.language.iso
eng
dc.publisher
Springer
dc.rights
info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess
dc.rights.uri
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.subject
El NiÑO Southern Oscillation
dc.subject
Precipitation
dc.subject
Seasonal Predictability
dc.subject
South America
dc.subject
Temperature
dc.subject.classification
Meteorología y Ciencias Atmosféricas
dc.subject.classification
Ciencias de la Tierra y relacionadas con el Medio Ambiente
dc.subject.classification
CIENCIAS NATURALES Y EXACTAS
dc.title
Climate predictability and prediction skill on seasonal time scales over South America from CHFP models
dc.type
info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.type
info:ar-repo/semantics/artículo
dc.type
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.date.updated
2018-09-07T13:53:10Z
dc.journal.volume
49
dc.journal.number
7-8
dc.journal.pagination
2365-2383
dc.journal.pais
Alemania
dc.journal.ciudad
Berlin
dc.description.fil
Fil: Osman, Marisol. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Ciudad Universitaria; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina
dc.description.fil
Fil: Vera, Carolina Susana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina
dc.journal.title
Climate Dynamics
dc.relation.alternativeid
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3444-5
dc.relation.alternativeid
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-016-3444-5
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