Hechos estilizados para la economía argentina

Abstract

El objetivo del trabajo es analizar los hechos estilizados de la economía argentina mediante el estudio de correlaciones dinámicas entre las variables de interés entre 1990 y 2007. Los resultados se basan en la aplicación del filtro Hodrick y Prescott, con y sin la implementación del método de pre-whitening. Los resultados no se ajustan en todos los casos a la teoría preponderante sobre ciclos económicos, y si bien difieren en algunos casos de los reportados por Kydland y Zarazaga (1997) en su análisis sobre la economía argentina, cualitativamente no se encuentran grandes diferencias.

One of the most important objectives of the macroeconomic science is the comprehension of causes and consequences over the economic fluctuations. The statistical characterization of business cycles has been studied by many authors since the influential work by Hodrick and Prescott (1980). However, some problems can appear if we try to analyze the facts in this way. The first problem emerges as soon as we look at the time series. In the study of business cycles it is difficult to establish regularities. For instance, although Argentina was affected by crises more than several developed economies, the unemployment rate in Argentina has not shown large fluctuations. This is true, even though the series were incorrect. The second problem is to obtain reliable data. Maybe, unemployment in Argentina had been underestimated.