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dc.contributor.author
Toreti, Andrea
dc.contributor.author
Belward, Alan
dc.contributor.author
Perez Dominguez, Ignacio
dc.contributor.author
Naumann, Gustavo
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dc.contributor.author
Luterbacher, Jürg
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Cronie, Ottmar
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Seguini, Lorenzo
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Manfron, Giacinto
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Lopez Lozano, Raul
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Baruth, Bettina
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van den Berg, Maurits
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Dentener, Frank
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Ceglar, Andrej
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Chatzopoulos, Thomas
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Zampieri, Matteo
dc.date.available
2022-01-07T17:19:40Z
dc.date.issued
2019-05
dc.identifier.citation
Toreti, Andrea; Belward, Alan; Perez Dominguez, Ignacio; Naumann, Gustavo; Luterbacher, Jürg; et al.; The Exceptional 2018 European Water Seesaw Calls for Action on Adaptation; John Wiley & Sons Inc; Earth's Future; 7; 6; 5-2019; 652-663
dc.identifier.issn
2328-4277
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/149794
dc.description.abstract
Temperature and precipitation are the most important factors responsible for agricultural productivity variations. In 2018 spring/summer growing season, Europe experienced concurrent anomalies of both. Drought conditions in central and northern Europe caused yield reductions up to 50% for the main crops, yet wet conditions in southern Europe saw yield gains up to 34%, both with respect to the previous 5-year mean. Based on the analysis of documentary and natural proxy-based seasonal paleoclimate reconstructions for the past half millennium, we show that the 2018 combination of climatic anomalies in Europe was unique. The water seesaw, a marked dipole of negative water anomalies in central Europe and positive ones in southern Europe, distinguished 2018 from the five previous similar droughts since 1976. Model simulations reproduce the 2018 European water seesaw in only 4 years out of 875 years in historical runs and projections. Future projections under the RCP8.5 scenario show that 2018-like temperature and rainfall conditions, favorable to crop growth, will occur less frequent in southern Europe. In contrast, in central Europe high-end emission scenario climate projections show that droughts as intense as 2018 could become a common occurrence as early as 2043. While integrated European and global agricultural markets limited agro-economic shocks caused by 2018's extremes, there is an urgent need for adaptation strategies for European agriculture to consider futures without the benefits of any water seesaw.
dc.format
application/pdf
dc.language.iso
eng
dc.publisher
John Wiley & Sons Inc
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dc.rights
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.rights.uri
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ar/
dc.subject
AGRICULTURE
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CLIMATE EXTREMES
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CLIMATE PROJECTIONS
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DROUGHT
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EUROPE
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WATER SEESAW
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Investigación Climatológica
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dc.subject.classification
Ciencias de la Tierra y relacionadas con el Medio Ambiente
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dc.subject.classification
CIENCIAS NATURALES Y EXACTAS
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dc.title
The Exceptional 2018 European Water Seesaw Calls for Action on Adaptation
dc.type
info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.type
info:ar-repo/semantics/artículo
dc.type
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.date.updated
2020-12-16T18:35:25Z
dc.journal.volume
7
dc.journal.number
6
dc.journal.pagination
652-663
dc.journal.pais
Estados Unidos
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dc.description.fil
Fil: Toreti, Andrea. Joint Research Centre; Italia
dc.description.fil
Fil: Belward, Alan. Joint Research Centre; Italia
dc.description.fil
Fil: Perez Dominguez, Ignacio. Joint Research Centre; Italia
dc.description.fil
Fil: Naumann, Gustavo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
dc.description.fil
Fil: Luterbacher, Jürg. Justus Liebig Universitat Giessen; Alemania
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Fil: Cronie, Ottmar. Universidad de Umea; Suecia
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Fil: Seguini, Lorenzo. Joint Research Centre; Italia
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Fil: Manfron, Giacinto. Joint Research Centre; Italia
dc.description.fil
Fil: Lopez Lozano, Raul. Joint Research Centre; Italia
dc.description.fil
Fil: Baruth, Bettina. Joint Research Centre; Italia
dc.description.fil
Fil: van den Berg, Maurits. Joint Research Centre; Italia
dc.description.fil
Fil: Dentener, Frank. Joint Research Centre; Italia
dc.description.fil
Fil: Ceglar, Andrej. Joint Research Centre; Italia
dc.description.fil
Fil: Chatzopoulos, Thomas. Joint Research Centre; Italia
dc.description.fil
Fil: Zampieri, Matteo. Joint Research Centre; Italia
dc.journal.title
Earth's Future
dc.relation.alternativeid
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019EF001170
dc.relation.alternativeid
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001170
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